Gibbs sampler by sampling-importance-resampling     

K. R. Koch 《Journal of Geodesy》2007,81(9):581-591

Among the Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the Gibbs sampler has the advantage that it samples from the conditional distributions for each unknown parameter, thus decomposing the sample space. In the case the conditional distributions are not tractable, the Gibbs sampler by means of sampling-importance-resampling is presented here. It uses the prior density function of a Bayesian analysis as the importance sampling distribution. This leads to a fast convergence of the Gibbs sampler as demonstrated by the smoothing with preserving the edges of 3D images of emission tomography.  相似文献   

重大地震灾害链的时空有序性及其预测研究   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

门可佩 《地球物理学进展》2007,22(2):645-651

重大地震与地震灾害链预测是当今世界地学前缘课题.本文通过国内外具体实例，重点介绍了重大地震灾害链的时空有序性、地震灾害链网络结构及其预测方法.  相似文献   

摄动理论在腐蚀管线随机地震反应分析中的应用     

刘威  李杰 《地震工程与工程振动》2007,27(2):32-38

埋地管线的腐蚀情况十分复杂,具有随机性的特点,从而导致其在地震激励下的反应必然具有随机性。本文在管线腐蚀离散状态模型和弹性地基梁原理的基础上,利用随机摄动理论推导给出了腐蚀管线在地震激励下位移和应力的解析表达式,并进行了均值和标准差的计算。实例分析中将该方法计算结果与Monte Carlo模拟方法计算结果进行了对比。结果表明,利用随机摄动方法可以快速、精确地求得腐蚀管线的随机地震反应。  相似文献   

Retailing local food in the Scottish-English borders: A supply chain perspective     

B. Ilbery  D. Maye 《Geoforum》2006,37(3):352-367

Local food is championed as one alternative response to industrial systems of food production and supply. While advocacy for local food is high, there is a lack of empirical evidence about the actual shape and scale of such food supply chains, especially from a retail perspective. Using supply chain diagrams, this paper presents a summary of ‘new’ agro-food geographies for five different retail types—farm shops, butchers, caterers, specialist shops, supermarkets/department stores—that all source local food from suppliers in the Scottish-English borders. Presented as five separate ‘shopping trips’, the paper examines where, how and why retailers source local food. Results reveal the complex nature of local food systems, especially in terms of intra-sector competitive dynamics (with a notable tension between direct forms of retail and established (independent) retailers), links and overlaps with ‘normal’ food retail systems and elastic notions of the ‘local’. The paper also draws a key distinction between locally produced and locally supplied food products.  相似文献   

The Tornquist Zone, a north east inclining lithospheric transition at the south western margin of the Baltic Shield: Revealed through a nonlinear teleseismic tomographic inversion     

P. Voss  K. Mosegaard  S. Gregersen  TOR Working Group 《Tectonophysics》2006,416(1-4):151

From July 1996 to August 1997 the TOR project operated 130 seismographs in North Germany, Denmark and South Sweden, with the aim of collecting signals from local, regional and teleseismic earthquakes. This data set is particularly interesting since the seismic antenna crosses the most significant geological boundary in Europe, the Tornquist Zone, which in the northern part is the border between the Baltic Shield and the younger European lithosphere. Previous studies have shown significant physical changes in the crust and upper mantle across this transition zone, including two independent teleseismic tomographic studies of the TOR data set. But these two studies disagree on the orientation of the slope of the transition. Both studies used an iterative linearized inversion method. We will in this work Preprint submitted to Elsevier Science 27 July 2005 present an inversion based on Bayesian statistics, where the solution space is examined in order to study a very large number of tomographic solutions and to examine the solution uniqueness and uncertainty. The method is applied to measurements of 3345 relative teleseismic P-phase travel times from 48 teleseismic earthquakes with good azimuthal coverage with respect to the great circle arc of the TOR array. We find the lithospheric transition to be a north east inclination of around 30° to 45° off vertical.  相似文献   

新疆巴楚-伽师6.8级地震极灾区砖结构房屋震害特点及分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

唐丽华  尹力峰 《内陆地震》2007,21(3):238-243

重点介绍了新疆巴楚—伽师6.8级地震极灾区琼库尔恰克乡政府所在地砖结构房屋的破坏情况。选择有代表性的建筑物,根据现场测绘、调查的资料,从建筑、结构及施工等方面参照相关国家标准分析震害原因,总结抗震经验,提出满足抗震设计一般规定和采取简单构造措施,即能保障砖结构房屋的抗震性能。  相似文献   

甘肃中东部地震滑坡灾害的机制与预防     

宋利萍  沈克金 《高原地震》2007,19(3):50-53

通过对甘肃中东部大量地震滑坡的成灾机制分析，按形成时代将滑坡分为新滑坡、老滑坡和古滑坡；按物质组成、滑体厚度及滑床位置又可分为浅层黄土滑坡和深层切层滑坡。该地区地震滑坡的主要危险来自新滑坡和浅层黄土滑坡，滑坡成灾机制复杂，与许多因素有关。地震滑坡主要特征是成灾时间短，规模大；灾害持续时间长、反复性大；易引发次生灾害。预防地震滑坡是防震减灾工作中的一项重要任务。  相似文献   

城市地震灾害风险评价方法研究     

金江军  潘懋  徐岳仁 《内陆地震》2007,21(2):135-141

从危险性评价、易损性评价以及防灾减灾能力评价3个方面阐述了城市地震灾害风险评价内容.回顾了地震灾害风险评价研究进展,指出了现有评价方法的不足.提出了基于地震小区划的城市地震危险性评价方法、基于城市用地类型的城市地震易损性评价方法以及基于专家打分法的城市防震减灾能力评价方法.最后设计了城市地震灾害风险评价流程,并给出了城市地震灾害风险区划算法.  相似文献   

基于USB的远程控制系统实现地震灾害救助     

李杨  陈金鹰  杜洪利 《内陆地震》2007,21(2):165-169

基于USB的远程控制系统初步研究设计建立了一种救助模型。与传统生命探测仪的救助系统不同,USB的远程控制系统具有远程实时监控功能。系统的硬件主要由单片机控制电路、USB接口电路、无线收发模块构成。系统利用Internet与计算机互联,通过USB接口电路与单片机的连接,对多个目标检测和控制,实现在地震灾害中的呼叫救助。  相似文献   

Public perception of climate change and disaster preparedness: Evidence from the Philippines     

《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2007

The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness.  相似文献